South Taranaki plans for stagnant future and council uncertainty
Struggling, stagnant and facing an uncertain future - that’s the forecast for South Taranaki as it begins a ten-year plan review.
By law South Taranaki District Council must renew its long-term plan next year, despite not knowing its fate in the Government’s nationwide council revamp.
The council’s proposal to merge with Stratford District Council in 2028 as part of the local government shake-up is in the hands of local government minister Simon Watts.
But South Taranaki District Council (STDC) is legally bound to plan what it intends to do from 2027-37 and how to pay for it, including infrastructure plans.
Council forecasting to inform the plan predicts the district will face negative economic growth and eventually a falling population.
A report to STDC’s Policy and Strategy Committee found global drivers of inflation, such as oil prices, were pushing up costs for local businesses and flowing through to higher prices for households.
“Economic activity in South Taranaki is expected to remain subdued, with limited job growth predicted.
“Before the Middle East conflict, economic growth (GDP) in South Taranaki District averaged minus 1.9% per annum over the 10 years to 2025 compared with … 2.5% per annum in New Zealand.”
The forecast expects continuing limited growth over the next 10 years.
Council staff said economic consultants Infometrics predicted a South Taranaki population gain of just 2.9% till 2037 and a decline of 2.1% through to 2054.
Slower subdivision and development would be concentrated in modest growth of the largest town, Te Hāwera.
The forecast said the next decade would likely see another global shock from war, financial market instability or climate change impacts.
“Such a shock could significantly affect employment, household costs and demand for services in South Taranaki.”
The district had lower incomes than the national average and more residents on fixed or lower incomes, including retirees and beneficiaries.
“This means rates and fees represent a greater proportion of household expenditure than in many other parts of New Zealand.”
“Council is also experiencing increasing signs of affordability pressure, including higher rates arrears and growing uptake of the Rates Rebate Scheme.”
The forecast said further law changes were highly likely as Wellington pushed ahead with local government reform.
“Potential rates capping or other funding constraints could limit Council’s ability to respond to cost pressures, resulting in funding shortfalls or reduced levels of service.”
Mayor Phil Nixon said it was “very frustrating” to be forced to make plans that might come to nothing or need to be done again.
“We're heading to a stage where all of a sudden they might say, ‘Oh, okay, you're going to have to review all that now’.”
He said the law also demanded STDC carry out a representation review to plan for the next election, despite the proposal to join with Stratford in a unitary authority.
“But a representation review and a long-term plan process is hugely expensive, hugely time-consuming for our staff and our councillors.”
Nixon said councillors would carry on with the long-term plan, as any work done would likely be useful for a restructured council.
But the council would make the minimal allowable progress on its representation review, as it would probably need a whole new review when councils merged.
nā Craig Ashworth craig@tekorimako.co.nz
LDR is local body journalism hosted by Te Korimako o Taranaki and funded by Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa and Irirangi te Motu
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